Only 30% of Americans Say U.S. Attack on Iran Made It Less Likely Iran Would Get Nukes

Equal Number Say Attack Made It More Likely Iran Would Get Nukes

By Shibley Telhami

President Donald Trump’s announcement that American bombers had attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities and “completely and fully obliterated” them took Americans by surprise. Public opinion polls, including our own, had been showing wide opposition to American involvement in the Israel-initiated war against Iran. In fact, unlike on many other issues, Republicans and Democrats expressed a preference for avoiding a fight with Tehran. Even among Trump’s supporters, an influential faction was loudly speaking against potential American involvement in what they saw as Israel’s war.

Before anyone had a chance to fully absorb the president’s social media post that, without a formal war declaration, found the U.S. at war with Tehran, President Trump declared he had arranged for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, after Iran only symbolically attacked an American base in Qatar. The quickly announced cessation of fighting had the effect of assuaging the fears of critics that the American strike would draw Washington into an extended, destructive war in the Middle East. In fact, high-profile Trump supporters who counseled him to avoid getting involved in war were quick to praise him for using the seemingly limited strikes to quickly arrange a ceasefire.

But how do the American people feel about the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities now that a ceasefire has taken hold? To find out, the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll, which I direct, probed the issue with Ipsos. The study was conducted June 27 - 29, 2025 by Ipsos using its large-scale, nationwide, online research panel, KnowledgePanel, among a weighted national sample of 1,022 adults 18 or older living in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is ±3.2 percentage points including a design effect of 1.08.

Here are some key takeaways.

First, 30% of Americans say that the U.S. strikes on Iran make it more likely that Iran will develop nuclear weapons with the same percentage also saying that Iran is less likely to do so. 20% say the strikes make it neither more nor less likely Iran will develop nuclear weapons, while 16% say they don’t know.

On this issue, there was a notable partisan divide with 52% of Democrats saying the strikes make it more likely Iran will develop nuclear weapons while 55% of Republicans say the strikes make Iranian nukes less likely.

Second, more Americans, 30%, say the US strikes on Iran mostly advance Israeli interests than say they mostly advance American interests, 21%, or mostly advance interests of Arab nations, 6%. One third said they didn’t know, while 8% said “other”.

Here too there were partisan differences, but not as pronounced as on the previous question on the likelihood of Iran developing nuclear weapons after the strikes. Notably, Republicans themselves were somewhat divided: While 33% said the strikes mostly advanced American interests, 22% said they mostly advanced Israeli interests, seemingly reflective of the debates among influential voices with the ‘Make America Great Again’ movement.

Third, more Americans say that Israel benefited the most from the war (22%) than say the same about the U.S., 5%, or Iran, 3%. Conversely, more Americans say the Iran benefited the least, 32%, than say the same about the U.S., 14%, or Israel, 4%. 29%-32% said they didn’t know.

There was little partisan variation on the assessment of who benefited the most from the war, but Democrats, 20%, were more likely than Republicans, 9%, to say that the United States benefited the least from the war.

Conclusion

On the eve of the surprise Israeli attack on Iran, Americans, including majorities of Democrats and Republicans, expressed strong public opposition to American military action to end Iran’s nuclear program. While President Trump’s surprise decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities seemed to go against public preferences, his quick move to limit the military attack and arrange for an end to fighting without American casualties mitigated the degree of dissent. Trump has also demonstrated in the past an ability to maintain the support of key supporters even when acting against their previously expressed positions on some key issues, such as Ukraine.

Still, even with a quick end to direct U.S. military involvement, less than one third of Americans see the strikes as having diminished the likelihood that Iran would develop nuclear weapons, with an equal number saying the strikes actually increase the likelihood Iran would develop nukes. And more Americans say the strikes mostly advance Israeli interests than American interests, with Republicans divided on this issue: 33% saying the strikes mostly advanced American interests, while 22% said they mostly advanced Israeli interests.

Image Credit: Department of Defense, B-2 bomber